2077 – 10 Seconds to the Future | Mutation | Free Documentary

so [2077] the two greatest mysteries in all of nature are the mind and the universe the human brain has around 100 billion neurons as many as the stars in the milky way the human brain can do 10 quadrillions of calculations per second the same as a computer the size of new york city yet everything happens from the shoulders up the domain of space time is the privilege of this small organ the human mind has an ability which distinguishes us from animals the ability of projecting the future [2077] so be we’ve had three great revolutions and science which changed everything the first was steam power creating locomotives the industrial revolution factories the second revolution was electricity that gave us the internal combustion engine that gave us the car that gave us television the third great revolution is high technology lasers computers the internet the space program now we’re beginning to see the beginning of the fourth great revolution in human history the fourth revolution will be artificial intelligence biotech and nanotech where and how will we be 60 years from now the next decades will suffer the greatest and fastest transformation ever in technology science environment in interpersonal relationships we live in a kind of great science accelerator with unpredictable consequences in the last decades we’ve stored more scientific knowledge than in all the history of humanity in 2077 this scientific knowledge will have doubled several times 2077 if machine superintelligence has been created significantly before then we would be in a condition of technological maturity in some kind of civilization that might then be spreading at some significant fraction of the speed of light in all directions through space um filling the universe with infrastructure that would then be used for some purpose and what that purpose would be depends on how this kind of transition unfolds we can be facing the most shocking challenge that humanity has ever faced whose outcome may depend on the continuity of the human species the path we choose will have different consequences in a good case scenario we could imagine vast numbers of super happy people living immensely wonderful lives doing things we can’t even begin to imagine feeling ecstatically blissful and living for you know unlimited lifespans for thousands or millions of years interacting and creating and experiencing virtual worlds the the future of 2077 that is happy and wonderful and blissful [2077] [Applause] [2077] [Applause] but it could also be some completely meaningless purpose by our standards and the future of 2077 that is dark and horrible and dystopian [2077] this might depend on the utility function of the ai that achieves super intelligence and that then might be in a position to shape these longer-term outcomes and that in turn depends on whether we get our act together sufficiently to solve the uh ai control problem in time but eventually we’re going to be at the place to where we have to decide what’s a machine and what’s a human and that process has already started i don’t have to tell you things are bad everybody knows things are bad the air is unfit to breathe [2077] roger i know what you’re talking about [2077] oh [2077] uh [2077] so it does look like we are sort of suspiciously near a decisive moment in history future billions of years from now might be determined by events happening over the next decades humanity will change more in the next 20 years than the previous three centuries we are at the previous point of exponential change so we’re now at the point where lots of science fiction is becoming science fact exponential change is all around us the best known example is moore’s law the doubling of circuit densities every 12 to 18 months [2077] [2077] the exponential thing really means is that that we we cannot count one two three four five six seven anymore we have to count two 4 8 16 32 so roughly in 10 years we’ll be at 128 that’s 30 times as much as today and if we go 30 steps we’re at 1 billion result is that we all carry super computers in our pockets we call them smartphones [2077] so you can say roughly 2023 or so if all of us will have machines that are a million times as powerful so that we can do our own dna analysis for example in 14 seconds so in 2050 we will have one computer that has the capacity of all human brains that’s roughly 10 billion brands what’s interesting is that people look at it exponentials as if there’s something exotic but in fact we’re surrounded by exponentials today not just in technology but also in the biological world two cells doubling over nine months gives you one trillion cells and what do we call that it’s a baby happy exponentials in biology is the miracle of birth less happy exponentials an exponential phenomena as cancer really we go from saying exponentials are this exotic thing that only happens in silicon valley and then you’ll end up being driven crazy because they’re absolutely everywhere consumption of whale has followed an exponential pattern nuclear chain reactions are by definition an exponential so we’re absolutely living in an age of exponentials but culturally accommodating ourselves to that change [2077] is what is creating the tension in global society today the mobile phone will no longer be the best selling product ever what will be the next object of humanity’s desire we walk exponentially in a one-way process for an inevitable lightness of matter we witness demetrialization of technology around us flowers an invisible intelligence network the computer will no longer be on a desk it will be spread and installed in our eyes it’s the new age of transparency [2077] computers will become invisible we will no longer say that we’re a computer so intelligence will be everywhere and nowhere like electricity today everywhere you go you know that there’s electricity in the walls the floor the ceiling everywhere but it’s nowhere electricity is invisible that’s the way intelligence will also be you’ll walk into a room you’ll simply talk to the walls and the walls will talk back to you and when you want entertainment you will mentally connect to the internet the internet will become a brain net where emotions feelings sensations will be transcribed around the planet earth almost instantly pencil [2077] so internet of things means to connect devices to the connect machines to connect the buildings so that we can have and use more the information than today some people are saying we’re going to have 500 billion connected devices in the world in 2020 so cars airplanes engines trucks food shops everything right and eventually several trillion connected devices and cent versus as an example today we are using around 12 percent of the data we could use so this is what we are going for when we talk about internet of things to get the data to create also more data to make data available and finally then to use the data and create value out of it and chances are that your refrigerator will be in conversation with the network and you won’t even realize that you were running low on milk but it’s delivered just in time nature is made known in formulas that the brain decodes and translates into scientific advances the ability to create artificial intelligence is another step whose scope is still unknown since the appearance of the computer in the 40s research in artificial intelligence has delved into long periods of hibernation it seems that the awakening time has come many of the brightest minds are focused on artificial intelligence development in large technology companies there is a contagious frenzy google is building a global brain ibm is bringing the watson super system to the most diverse realms of society to read 8 000 reports per day is impossible for a doctor but not to a super computer the rise of the machine is already present in our daily lives without us being fully aware but that’s just the tip of the iceberg so artificial intelligence is a general-purpose technology it will impact all sectors of the economy discovering new drugs to treat horrible diseases the challenge of producing economic goods so that people don’t have to live in need the creation of more meaningful and interesting entertainment virtual worlds games sports arts music colonization of space all these things and many many more could be done with machine super intelligence it really would sort of unlock the next level if you want so watson is a very important step for the future there are currently 80 000 developers using the system every day and we have hundreds of examples of what’s now being infused into people’s daily work [2077] when watson was in the jeopardy phase so the old watson it had already consumed all of the books of the national library of congress in the usa so that was it’s a huge number of books and now watson can read about one million pages a second imagine for me i believe that we already start to use it today in for example in medicine so you get we have cancer research which is going forward with some very large institutions worldwide for example tokyo university we helped them to for a 60 year old woman who was suffering from leukemia they could not through all of the genome sequencing they could not understand why they could not treat her correctly so after loading up the watson with a huge amount of data and documentation within 10 minutes it had identified that the doctors had missed one of the diagnoses and she actually had two strains of leukemia so they made the adjustment to her treatment plan and she is now living a healthy normal life scans many activities that people are working with every day are infused with cognitive augmented intelligence experiences and in fact today you already see people with augmented agricultural activities where we start to optimize the way that we produce food and therefore that flows into the way that we optimize the supply chain and these kinds of activities will be spread into many industries we see also this distributing ever more widely to areas travel and transportation you see already with augmented vehicles we at ibm have already worked with 3d printing a bus hi everyone my name is ali i’m a self-driving vehicle powered by ibm watson technology and that bus is working autonomously and this is all underpinned by um watson [2077] in the future if you wake up in the morning and you feel a pain in your chest what do you do you go to the wall or talk to your wristwatch and say mirror mirror on the wall i’m going to talk to robodoc right now boom robodoc appears and you talked it yes yeah i have a pain here and you talk about all your problems and then robodog says we need an mri scan no problem go to your medicine cabinet take out your portable mri machine and scan yourself and email the documents the the files to robodog in case and if you walk out the door and have a heart attack your clothes will automatically identify the fact that you have a heart attack it’ll automatically locate your position send the information to a doctor and an ambulance all when you are unconscious in other words in the future you will never die alone [2077] [2077] [2077] diagnostic [2077] [2077] [2077] because [2077] you will have a chip in your toilet which analyzes your bodily fluids analyzes for cancer proteins cancer genes cancer enzymes maybe 10 years before a tumor forms when there’s only a colony of 100 cancer cells growing in your body immediately your bathroom will alert you and tell you that you have cancer so in the future yes we will have cancer just like we will have the common cold but it’s not going to be the terrible disease that it is today [2077] zoom [2077] [Applause] personally i think we’re not going to have one cure for cancer because cancer is not one disease why can’t we cure the common cold well we actually can but you have to have a vaccine for every single one of the 300 rhinoviruses and so it’s not economically viable to do that so i think we’re not going to have one cure for cancer we’ll have many many ways of dealing with many many types of cancers wind [2077] we’re in the middle of a sensor revolution we first we created our computers then we networked them together and created cyberspace and now we’re giving them izers and sensory organs and asking them to observe and manipulate the world on our behalf and the next phase with that is we’re going to give them intelligence so just take those sensors that we have today computer sensors and networks put wheels on them and you have robots [2077] [2077] robots are artificial intelligence creatures able to notice the environment in which they’re integrated to move around and make decisions according to objectives currently they’re at level one of consciousness they know how to locate themselves they’re starting at level two that of emotions the next level is the ability to plan the future it’s estimated that by the mid-century they’ll replace more than half of the professions performed today by the human being the robotics industry will be bigger than the automobile industry of today is as soon as robots become more capable they will help us they will live with us in many different ways and there is no reason why we not continue relying more and more on on robots like we rely on washing machines and computers and we rely on whatever helps us achieving our aims goals and visions i think the the real ethical question is what will be our relation to these robots once they will be cognitive more aware of their environment and start developing their own particularities and i think that question we are just scratching the surface i’m also not sure if in 60 years we will have found uniform ants or different cultures might develop very different answers to this question but what happens if they turn against us well you have to realize the state of robotics today our most advanced robot is called asimo [2077] a robot built in japan that can walk run climb upstairs interact with people but esimo is about as intelligent as an insect a cockroach cockroaches can run around they can hide they can find mates they can find food that’s the level of azimo but in the future i believe they will become as smart as a mouse eventually as smart as a cat or a dog perhaps by the end of the century they’ll be as smart as a monkey at that point they could be dangerous because they will have a will of their own they’ll have a consciousness of their own an agenda of their own which may not include humans i personally believe that we should put a chip in their brains to shut them off if they have murderous thoughts an improved human species may be a few decades away far from the randomness of nature and determined by the choices of the human being himself it’s possible that in the mid 21st century the brain has reached levels of intelligence never before achieved and that the choice of eye colour or baby’s hair is recurrent genetic manipulation opens a new chapter in the creation of synthetic life in the next years the chance of creating useful bacteria a new hybrid species in laboratory is open but none of these chances is risk-free is this a door we should open the biggest changes are going to happen between now and 2077 it is in biology and it is in the human organism itself [2077] an important thing to keep in mind at this moment in history is everybody is obsessed with digital technology but behind this is a much bigger revolution we’re right on the cusp of a shift from digital technology to biology being the thing that is going to grow very very quickly and a way to get a sense of this is if you went back to 1900 the first third of the last century was shaped by chemistry and chemists the middle third was shaped by physics and physicists it was a materials revolution and the final third was electronics and digital technology we’re in the early stages where biology is growing faster and changing more rapidly than digital technology is but we don’t quite see the consequences yet [2077] foreign [2077] [2077] [2077] so [2077] we live in the pre-incorporation of technology in the human body era the transhumanism has started knocking on the door the number of humans with chips started to take shape in asia in europe and america where there are more than fifteen thousand cases the victims of tetraplegia or mental illnesses gain new hope with inter-cranial devices in the long run the intersection between technology and human capabilities will create a large network of brains communicate mentally and move objects with thought as scientists move forward with the human brain decoding new windows open for the human machine fusion are we going to put technology inside our bodies of course so we will without a doubt over the next several decades find ways to augment human cognition and human abilities with with biologically based machines you will mentally make commands and move objects you will have the power of telepathy the power of telekinesis the power of recording memories and sending memories and sensations now you may say to yourself wait a minute this is science fiction right wrong we’ve done it [2077] i’m a physicist using mri scans to scan the human brain we can now read thoughts we can project thoughts we can actually photograph what you’re thinking of and we can actually photograph a dream think about this in the future you’ll wake up in the morning turn on the switch and watch the dream that you had the previous night and then when you go to sleep the machine just keeps on going and will print out images of what you are dreaming of this is not science fiction this is science fact using mri machines we can scan the human brain divide it up into thirty thousand dots thirty thousand locations of blood flow we then put this into a computer which analyzes 30 000 pixels and creates a picture a picture of what you’re thinking about this means that we will have telepathy the power of magicians the power to move objects just by thinking about it augmenting human intellect is absolutely something that we’re going to be doing in a way we’re already doing it there’s a lot of talk about ai today and but there’s another concept and that’s ia so ai is artificial intelligence ia is intelligence augmentation ai was a term coined by john mccarthy stanford professor in 1958 and he said this is going to create supercomputers that are smarter than we are in evolving faster than us and presumably replace us ia was a term coined by douglas engelbart a stanford researcher and he said no the point of all these more powerful machines is to create ever more powerful tools that augment and enhance human intelligence i think this is a future of intelligence augmentation the machines are not going to be replace us what we’re going to have is a very deep symbiosis between man and machine we’re looking at a whole new revolution in the way we view the human brain connected to a computer teenagers sending emotions of their first kiss their first day the first dance they’re gonna go crazy sending all these mental images now you may say to yourself this sounds like the movie the matrix this is a hollywood movie no this is fact we can now hook the brain with a computer chip to a laptop computer and send mental images and send our thoughts in simplified form of course to other computers and we can even use this to energize exoskeletons the next big thing to be digitalized is the human brain and already we can record memories in mice simple memories like learning how to sip water from a tube we can record that memory by putting electrodes in the hippocampus of the brain and then shooting these impulses back into the hippocampus many months later when they have forgotten the task and boom they remember next we’ll do this on primates perhaps the primate will eat a banana and we’ll record the memory and then alzheimer’s patients think about this alzheimer’s disease may be the disease of the century with millions of people just wandering the streets wondering who am i where do i live they’re going to have a button they’ll push a button and memories memories will come flooding into their hippocampus reminding them who they are where they live what they have to do today so this is going to change the way we view memories with the way we view the brain and maybe even after that who knows when you want to learn calculus you want to learn mathematics maybe students will just push a button and all of a sudden you understand higher mathematics now of course we’re not there yet we can only do this in mice but the fact that we can do this at all is amazing the idea that you could take some maybe human mind and upload it into a computer something impossible now but with mature technology should be doable if that was done with enough resolution and enough precision you would then have something that would behave identically to the original person that would have the same memories the same personality the same ability to to think and talk as the original happen and depending on your philosophical perspective it might be the original person [2077] i think in the future we will have a library of souls when you go to the library and want to read about winston churchill today you take out a book about winston churchill in the future you will talk to winston churchill you go to the library and a holographic image appears and the person on the other side of the hologram looks like winston churchill talks like him has all his mannerisms his memories all his speeches everything all the biographical information contained and that’s possible very soon a little bit further down the line you will become immortal your great-great-grandkids will go to the library and talk to you conjure up who you are and you’ll leave a digital fingerprint a footprint of all your habits your your memories your sensations and you’ll have an interesting conversation with your with your descendants even if you have long since passed away and what’s beyond that beyond that is the digitalization of the entire brain this is called the connectome project and then the question is when you die and your connectome lives on in a computer are you really dead think about that this is called digital immortality we live in the air of genetics intersection nanotechnology and artificial intelligence the transposition of borders bring multi-disciplinary revelations with scopes never before imagined genetics will allow the control and evasion from various diseases will slow aging and prolong life especially i think that our grandkids may have the option of perhaps hitting the age of 30 and stopping they may like being 30 years of age for many decades to come now of course we don’t have the fountain of youth but i think it’s definitely possible that in the coming decades we’ll be able to unravel the genetics and the chemistry of the aging process and therefore begin to stop the aging process believe it or not 10 15 years ago we didn’t know what aging really was now we do aging is the buildup of error genetic air cellular air molecular error but error in our body we now know that yes there are error correcting mechanisms but eventually they wear out too that’s why you die why do you die [2077] a [2077] [Applause] [2077] another way to quote immortalize yourself is to eat less if you eat 30 percent less calories you live 30 longer this is work for yeast cells spiders insects mice dogs cats now up to primates they have fewer tumors less incidence of diabetes all the signs of aging is slowed down there’s only one animal that we have not tested one major animal and that is homo sapiens because a we live too long b we complain too much. oregon the 3d printing organs is a big thing i think it’s it’s also very exciting because there’s a obvious great use case for it uh where we are right now with printing of organs is kind of we print the structure the shape the foundation where actually the cells grow on so you don’t you’re not directly printing the organ yet but you create kind of the right 3d geometry where later people can kind of inject the living cells and they will grow into the organs the easier ones when it comes to printing organs are like skin because it’s not that 3d they can do bladders as well because it’s it’s also easier simpler organs livers pancreas they’re all working on those kind of things and it it shouldn’t take another 60 years it should be a lot faster than aurora was the greek goddess of the dawn and according to mythology she fell in love with a human a mortal called tithinus and she wanted the mortal lover to be immortal too so she went to zeus the father of the gods and says please give immortality to my lover so zeus said okay okay i’ll make your lover immortal but she made a huge mistake and asking for immortality she forgot to ask for eternal youth and as a consequence the lover got older and older and older and aged but could never die and so when we have the fountain of youth we have to make sure that not only will we live forever but we have to enjoy it we have to live forever in a body that is youthful and that’s where the human body shop comes in we are now creating a human body shop just like an automobile body shop where you order a fender or a steering wheel or a new car we can now grow in the laboratory from your own cells from your own cells we can grow skin bone cartilage noses ears heart valves bladders windpipes can now be grown using your own cells so there’s no rejection mechanism say [2077] it’s likely that in 60 years the human being has developed their skills and ascended to the next level the ability to simulate the future has been a motive for human intelligence evolution how far we’ll go depends on what we can balance between the potential of technology and the threats of everyday life will the dispute for resources and the lack of control over the environment prevent the human being from fighting their resilience battle…

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